What can a neighbourhood tell us about growing older?

The challenge

Thanks to modern medicine, sanitation, nutrition, and workplace safety, many more of us are living longer, and growing old in our own homes.

But public services, housing and transport can be quite different from one community to the next. The way that we currently look at these elements often overlooks important local differences about what it’s like to grow older in the UK. Richard’s research asks: what can our neighbourhoods tell us about what it’s like to grow old there?

The idea

Richard’s focus is the Ageing in Place Classification data, drawn from sources including the census, NHS prescribing records, house sales and deprivation statistics, broadband and mobile coverage, travel times to local services, and air quality. It sorts England’s 32,844 neighbourhoods into five broad profiles based on local features such as housing, services, transport, health, money and digital connectivity, as they affect people aged 50 and over.

He is combining this classification with the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, which has followed around 18,000 people aged 50 and over since 2002, gathering detailed information on their health and wellbeing, the care they receive, and the places they live.

By matching the people who take part in the study to their neighbourhood profile, he can test how well neighbourhood settings might explain differences in health over time.

This matters because health and care services are planned locally, but most forecasts of older people’s needs only look at the country or region as a whole. Understanding how neighbourhoods inform health in later life could help councils and the NHS plan better local support.

01 | Match people to places

Link people taking part in the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing to their neighbourhood profile, and measure how closely each person’s circumstances fit the type of place they live in.

02 | Test the predictions

Check whether knowing someone’s neighbourhood profile improves predictions of how they will age and what care they will need, beyond what their individual details already tell us.

03 | Build local forecasts

Produce profiles of how health is changing for local authorities and, if the link proves strong enough, add neighbourhood detail to the English Future Elderly Model.

Why smart data?

Long-running studies such as the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing tell us a lot about how people’s health changes over time.

The Ageing in Place Classification brings together 71 indicators – from the Census and NHS prescribing records to broadband coverage, house sales and travel times to services – to describe the areas older people live in, for every small neighbourhood area in England.

Bringing the two together makes it possible to study person and place at once, giving a far better local picture than a national or regional forecast ever could.

Richard is also adding open neighbourhood health data, drawn from GP records, including a measure of frailty, how common long-term conditions such as heart disease, COPD, atrial fibrillation and stroke are locally, and prescribing of related medicines.

What could change?

Richard’s ambition is to produce the first local forecasts of how people age that reflect the differences between England’s communities.

Planning care for an ageing population is complex and relies on knowing what is ahead. But a forecast for a whole region cannot show which communities within it will need the most support, or when.

What the project produces will depend on what the data shows. If neighbourhood profiles prove to be a strong guide to how people age, Richard will work out how people’s health is likely to change over time in different types of neighbourhood.

He will then add these figures to the English Future Elderly Model, a tool developed at the University of Leeds that forecasts the health and care needs of older people in England. If the link is weaker, the project will still produce local profiles of how health is changing, written up for local authorities and published openly.

The research could help local authorities and other decision-makers understand:

• where to direct support first, in the short and medium term

• where needs are likely to grow, for example, more people struggling with everyday tasks, living with several long-term conditions, or relying on care

• how changes in health differ between types of neighbourhood.

Richard’s view

“Most of us want to grow old in our own homes and communities, but what that looks like depends a great deal on where home is.

The forecasts that councils and the NHS rely on are usually drawn for whole regions, which can hide the neighbourhoods where needs are growing fastest. I want to give local planners a much sharper picture, so that support can be in place before people reach crisis point, not after.

What excites me most is putting person and place side by side. The English Longitudinal Study of Ageing tells us a lot about people’s lives as they get older, and the Ageing in Place Classification tells us about the places they live. Bringing the two together lets us ask questions about the relationship between people and place for older people.

I’m also really looking forward to taking what we find back to councils and NHS teams, and working out with them what it means for the communities they serve.”

Working with SDR UK’s data services

Richard’s research will work with data from SDR UK’s national data services, including:

Healthy and Sustainable Places Data Service (HASP). HASP works with researchers and policymakers, using smart data to better understand and improve the health and sustainability of places, including how the places we live affect our health.

Geographic Data Service (GeoDS). GeoDS publishes the Ageing in Place Classification as open data, covering every small neighbourhood area in England. It also publishes the Access to Healthy Assets and Hazards index, which Richard is using to capture how close each neighbourhood is to things that support or harm health, such as GP surgeries, green space and fast food outlets.

From research to action

The project is looking to make a practical difference, with its findings helping decision-makers see which places need support most, and plan services that will last.

“The questions that integrated care boards and councils are grappling with should shape what we produce, so I’ll be working with them throughout the project,” says Richard. “If a planner can look at our findings and see which communities are likely to need more help in a few years’ time, that’s a real chance to act early.”

The aim is not simply to forecast need. It is to help more people stay well and independent at home as they grow older.

At a glance

Researcher
Dr Richard Green

Institution
University of Surrey

Theme
Health and Wellbeing

Research period
February 2026 to July 2027

SDR UK Fellowship
Up to £200,000

Working with
HASP · GeoDS · AiPC · ELSA · E-FEM · UK Data Service